Final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of election cycle shows strong position for Republicans in topline races

The final Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Tuesday's election has Republican Senator Chuck Grassley pulling away with now a double-digit lead.
Published: Nov. 5, 2022 at 9:24 PM CDT|Updated: Nov. 5, 2022 at 10:24 PM CDT
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DES MOINES, Iowa (KCRG) - The last Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of the 2022 election showed swings toward Republican candidates in key races in the state.

The poll, of likely voters or Iowans who have already voted, showed a significant shift toward incumbent Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley’s reelection chances, with 53% of respondents choosing him against 41% for Democratic challenger Mike Franken. 3% said they would cast their ballot for another person, 2% were undecided, and 1% refused to reveal who they had already voted for.

The early October edition of the same poll showed a much tighter race, with Grassley holding a narrow 46% to 43% lead over Franken. Grassley has regained the lead among independent voters, according to the newly-released poll, by a margin of 47% to 41%. With 94% registered Republicans and Democrats both going for their respective party’s candidate, independent voters will likely be critical for the winning candidate.

The poll also showed a consistent 17-point lead for incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds over Democratic challenger Deidre DeJear. 54% said they support Reynolds, compared to just 37% for DeJear. The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll has shown a 17-point advantage for Reynolds each time it has been conducted since the June primaries.

The new poll shows Reynolds with a lead among both men and women, as well as independent voters.

In a highly-contested race for attorney general, incumbent Democrat Tom Miller holds a slim lead in the new poll over challenger Republican Brenna Bird, 47% to 45%. It also showed a swing toward the Republican candidate, with Miller carrying a 16-point margin in the early October edition.

Poll results showed an incumbency advantage for Miller, with around 14% of voters who intend to vote for Republican candidates in the Senate and Governor races saying they will split their ticket and vote Democratic for attorney general.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., included 1,118 Iowans of voting age that were contacted by landline and cellular phone, with 801 of those considered likely voters. The margin of error for likely voter questions is +/- 3.5%.