Severe weather threat builds on Tuesday, Wednesday
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) - Another large storm system will move through the Midwest toward midweek, bringing a variety of weather conditions to our area.
This time, we’ll be on the warmer side of the storm for much of it, which means a threat of severe thunderstorms. However, it’s not a guarantee at this point.
Monday will be quiet, with no precipitation expected as an area of high pressure moves through the area. This will likely give us a break from stronger winds, too, making for a fairly pleasant day. As the high slides east, winds shift back to the south and southeast, marking the first sign of a shift in our weather.
A strong low pressure develops on the plains by Tuesday, with a warm front stretching to its east. This front will likely make it toward the U.S. Highway 30 corridor by evening, with both temperatures and moisture increasing along and south of it. To its north, scattered storms and widespread cloudiness may keep temperatures a bit cooler.
This front could be the focus for thunderstorm development on Tuesday evening. However, the majority of computer models also bring in warmer air just above the surface, which would cap off the atmosphere from that type of development. If storms are able to break this cap, then they would form in an environment that is very conducive to severe weather. Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds would be likely. Again, this is on the condition that storms are able to develop near or south of the warm front.
Other storms that develop north of the warm front would still have the potential for large hail. Later Tuesday night, a cold front moves in from the west. A squall line of storms is likely to develop along it, carrying the risk for damaging winds, large hail, and even a tornado or two. Fortunately, latest trends show that this line and front may arrive toward daybreak or just beyond on Wednesday, which could help lessen their intensity. However, the timing of this front is not completely certain yet.
These potential issues are clouding the confidence in severe weather developing this week. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted both days as carrying a slight risk for such storms. We will be watching closely.
We also recommend that you check back with us at KCRG-TV9 through Monday into Tuesday for additional updates. First Alert Storm Team meteorologists will be monitoring developments and providing the latest information in our newscasts, on KCRG.com, and the KCRG-TV9 First Alert Weather app for smartphones and tablets.
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