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Handful of new polls show close races in Iowa

Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump
Former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump(KWQC)
Published: Oct. 21, 2020 at 5:03 PM CDT
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CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG) - Three polls released Wednesday from reputable public opinion firms show an overall close race for president and U.S. Senate in Iowa.

Monmouth University’s poll showed President Donald Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden 48% to 47% in the state among registered voters. When the organization limited the sample to likely voters, Biden has a 50-47% lead in a high turnout scenario and a 51-46% lead in a low turnout scenario.

The same poll showed a similarly-tight race for U.S. Senate, with Sen. Joni Ernst and challenger Theresa Greenfield tied at 47% among registered voters. Similarly, the two turnout scenarios benefitted the Democratic challenger, with Greenfield ahead 49-47% in a high turnout election or ahead 51-45% in a low turnout election.

The Monmouth poll was conducted between October 15 and October 19 and used a mix of 501 registered voters interviewed by landline or cell phone, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

The New York Times and Siena College also released a poll on Tuesday, which showed Biden leading 46% to 43% over Trump among likely voters. 7% of respondents said they were undecided or would not name a preference in the race. Jo Jorgensen, of the Libertarian Party, received 2%, and Howie Hawkins, of the Green Party, got 1%.

Ernst faired better than the president in the Senate matchup, where she leads Greenfield 45-44% in the New York Times/Siena College poll. Analysts for the Times attributed the difference in standing to Ernst’s better standing among independent voters and seniors in the state compared to Trump.

The poll interviewed 753 likely voters by phone between October 18 and October 20 and carries a margin of error of around +/- 4%.

The third poll to be released on Wednesday of Iowa’s voters came from Emerson College, which found that Biden leads Trump 48% to 46% among likely voters, with 3% undecided and 4% indicating support for another candidate.

Ernst had a narrow advantage in the poll over Greenfield, leading 46-45%. 3% said they would vote for somebody else, and 6% were undecided.

The Emerson poll interviewed 435 people via landline, SMS, and an online panel. The margin of error was +/- 5.7%

FiveThirtyEight, a division of ABC News, averages recent polling of the presidential contest while making some adjustments for quality of pollster and sample size. Including these most recent polls, their average shows Biden with a narrow lead, 47.5% to 46.4%, over Trump.

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