Iowa Presidential Votes Trending Toward Democrats

By James Q. Lynch, Reporter

DES MOINES, Iowa - After more than a century of being reliably Republican red, Iowa is emerging as a true blue Democratic state in presidential elections.

Between the Civil War and the late 1980s, Iowans supported Republican presidential candidate in all but five elections. However, in six of the last seven races, Iowans voted for the Democratic presidential nominee.

This year, Iowa voters favored Democratic President Barack Obama over his GOP challenger Mitt Romney by a 52 to 46 percent split. Since Ronald Reagan carried Iowa in 1984, only George W. Bush in 2004 broke the Democratic lock on Iowa presidential politics.

The shift in Iowans' voting pattern started about 80 years ago, according to historian Tom Morain.

The former director of the State Historical Society traces the roots of Democratic dominance in presidential elections to Iowans' acceptance of federal farm programs during the Great Depression, Harold Hughes' elections to the Governor's Office and U.S. Senate, and still-evolving demographic shifts.

Overall, he and University of Iowa political scientist Tim Hagle point to increasing urbanization, higher education and mobility as factors in Iowans' support for Democratic presidential candidates.

However, Morain has another theory.

"This is sort of squishy, but I don't think Iowa has participated in the same degree of hostility or anger or antipathy toward the federal government as some other regions, particularly the South," he says.

"Traditionally, Iowa has not been an angry state," Morain says. "Don't ask me to document that, but I think we're pragmatic. We ask, 'What are the problems and how do we solve them?' more so than thinking we have to have revenge on somebody."

For generations, Iowans endorsed the Republican solutions to problems, Morain says. Before the 1950s, the Democratic Party in Iowa was "bleak" and for the most part, the state was strongly Republican from Des Moines west.

"It was Harold Hughes' victories (in the 1960s) that gave the Democratic Party an institutional base in the state," he says.

EFFECTS OF FARM CRISIS

The tipping point according to Hagle, seems to have come on the heels of Iowa's farm crisis.

"Iowa became less oriented to agriculture and (the crisis) accelerated the movement of Iowans from farms to cities," he says.

The same trend has played out, although more slowly, in other battleground states, Hagle said. In Virginia, for example, GOP presidential candidates won with the exception of Barry Goldwater in 1964. Rural Virginia remains a Republican stronghold. However, as the northern Virginia suburbs around Washington, D.C., grew, the voting pattern shifted. Obama carried the commonwealth in 2008 and again this year.

"Sometimes those changes happen slowly," Hagle said. "In Iowa, it seems to have happened more abruptly."

EDUCATION LEVEL

Morain, now director of governmental relations for Graceland University in Lamoni, also believes the increase in Iowans finishing K-12 education and attending college has played a role in changing voting patterns.

"Not that smarter people are Democrats," he says. Higher education broadens an individual's perspective and they "have a less local perspective ... (and) are oriented to a larger picture of the world."

He also points to cultural changes that affect party identification.

Iowa's evangelical church tradition tends to be stronger in rural settings that are losing population, Morain says.

"As us old-timers kick off, we're not doing a good job of converting the younger generation to our perspective," he says. "That will be reflected in a decrease over the next 25 years in the traditional evangelical Christian influence."

Mobility exposes people to other lifestyles and makes them more likely to accept diversity in their communities, Morain says.

NOT PERMANENT

None of these demographic shifts mean Iowa will be permanently blue, according to U.S. Rep. Steve King, who was just re-elected to a sixth term by a 53 to 45 percent margin.

"I think (Iowa's) always going to be a bellwether state that we're going to fight over," King said during taping of the edition of Iowa Public Television's "Iowa Press "that airs this weekend.

Being in the middle of the political spectrum and holding the first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses will continue to give Iowans a loud voice in the presidential election process, according to King.

"If we can hold that together, we can long make recommendations on Iowa values to the rest of the country," he said.

Much will depend on the Republican Party's response to the changing demographics, Morain says. The Iowa business community, which tends to lean Republican, is strong and he sees urban areas that elect Republicans to local and state office.

"The strength of the Republican Party, traditionally, has been in the small towns and on the farms. That population is growing older and growing smaller," he says. "So I think the struggle is going to be in the urban areas. We are still a very competitive state. The fact we have gone Democratic in numerous elections is not an indicator that we are by any means a blue state."
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