Register Poll: Branstad With Large Lead Over Culver For 2010 Race

By Chris Earl, Anchor/Reporter

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By Chris Earl

Story Created: Nov 15, 2009 at 8:33 PM CST

Story Updated: Nov 15, 2009 at 10:37 PM CST

CEDAR RAPIDS - 50 weeks from the 2010 Election for Governor, a poll released on Sunday by Des Moines Register puts former Governor Branstad with a large lead in a potential election with Governor Chet Culver.

Aside from a handful of television ads, many people in Eastern Iowa are not fully engulfed in the middle of a political campaign quite yet.

That will change in the next year as the election season gets closer. The race for Iowa's governor has become more interesting since Terry Branstad, who served as governor from 1983 to 1999, expressed he wanted to run against incumbent Democrat Chet Culver.

Sunday's Des Moines Register released the results of a recent poll of 539 "likely voters". Much of the attention will center on the mock matchups between the top contenders:

Chet Culver (D) vs. Terry Branstad (R): Branstad 57%, Culver 33%
Chet Culver (D) vs. Bob Vander Plaats (R): Vander Plaats 45%, Culver 37%

Chet Culver (D) vs. Christopher Rants (R): Culver 42%, Rants 35%

Chet Culver (D) vs. Christian Fong (R): Culver 42%, Fong 34%

The Register reports a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

We met up with Bruce Nesmith, a longtime professor of political science at Coe College in Cedar Rapids. The election is 50 weeks away but the Republicans will hold their primary in early June, leaving five full months of campaigning between the eventual nominee and Governor Culver.

Nesmith's thoughts on:

- Culver's immediate future: "There's a number of things working against Culver. There is nothing good to do in a recession. You are raising taxes or cutting spending. Neither of those are going to make you any friends."

- The Governor's challenges considering these poll results: "Culver is not that effective as a public speaker. He is not someone who can go on television and turn people's minds. He may have aces in the hole that I don't know about but he may not have options to improve his own popularity. The best thing would be to have the recession end and the economy surge."

- The Republican field now that Branstad is "in play" for 2010: "If it doesn't seem like he's vulnerable, it may be best to wait." Nesmith added that a candidate like Vander Plaats may be running out of time, politically, while some of the other candidates may be best sitting 2010 out.

- If Branstad is topping out on momentum: "He is certainly riding that wave but how long will it last?"

- Will Iowa follow the recent Republican victories for governor in New Jersey and Virginia: "Iowa isn't going to vote because of national trends but it will inspire Republican Party candidates to make a challenge for fundraising a lot."

- Whether 2010 will be a spirited campaign: "Sorry, folks. A bit of negative advertising will be on your evening television viewing. It's not everybody's cup of tea but it has been effective in the past."

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