Hurricane track forecasts have improved drastically

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CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa (KCRG-TV9) - When hurricanes from decades ago are brought up in discussion, the number of fatalities are unfortunately very high all too often. Even though the hurricanes nowadays are just as strong as they were 100 years ago, the concept of being able to give people an advanced, accurate warning is something that’s incredibly important.

Back in the 1970s, the track error just three days in advance was nearly 400 miles. That’s the distance between Dubuque and Lincoln, Nebraska! Now, the three day forecast error on average is only 100 miles. While that may still seem high, the sheer size of a hurricane is phenomenal, and is actually pretty good. This is critical to helping people plan.

In the case of Hurricane Irma, the forecast path image is shown in this article at 72 hours of distance and is from 5 a.m. Thursday. The National Hurricane Center has been steadfast with a southeast Florida impact. We will see where Irma winds up this weekend!


The National Hurricane Center's forecast track for Irma from Thursday, September 7, 2017.